Man City's Premier League title chance at 70% after Liverpool, Arsenal slip

Before round 33, Pep Guardiola and Man City were third on the table, with one point less than Arsenal and Liverpool. At that time, Opta's supercomputer still thought that Man City have the most chance of winning the title, a probability of 41%, compared to Arsenal's 30% and Liverpool's 29%.

This is easy to understand because Man City have won three consecutive EPL titles with many amazing runs at the end of the season. Arsenal have not won a league title for 20 years, and Liverpool have shown signs of decline in Jurgen Klopp's final season with the club.

On Saturday Man City defeated Luton Town 5-1 at the Etihad Stadium. They climbed to the top of the table and pressure on their two opponents. The perfect scenario for Guardiola's team was that Liverpool and Arsenal both lose and that is exactly what happened on Sunday.

Liverpool lost 1-0 to Crystal Palace, despite having 70% possession and 21 shots.

"This defeat is rubbish and I need time to calm down," Klopp said after the game. "On another day, we could have won 4-1."

Crystal Palace are the only team to win three matches against Klopp's Liverpool at Anfield (2015, 2017 and 2024).

Arsenal were also worried when playing Aston Villa under Unai Emery. After being fired by Arsenal in 2019, Emery have encountered his former team in five games, winning three, drawing one and losing one. He helped Spanish club Villarreal eliminate Arsenal in the 2021 Europa League semifinals, then won the title after defeating Man Utd in the final.

After a goalless first half, Villa outplayed Arsenal in the second half as Leon Bailey and Ollie Watkins scored, sinking their opponent at Emirates Stadium within three minutes near the end of the match.

Thousands of spectators at Emirates left before the final whistle. Villa became the only team to win both EPL games against Arsenal this season.

The results of round 33 helped Man City increase their chances of winning the EPL by 29%, to 70%. Arsenal's chance dropped to 18%, while Liverpool's are only 12%.

Man City not only have a two-point lead but also a comfortable schedule ahead. Their biggest opponents in the last six rounds are Villa and Tottenham Hotspurs. Liverpool will also only have to face Spurs, while Arsenal still have to play Man United, Spurs, Chelsea and Villa.

The final matchday of the 2023-2024 Premier League will be on May 19.