How deporting undocumented immigrants could affect the price of American goods

In my county, there is a popular Korean market known for its affordable groceries and household items. One day, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raided the market, detaining several undocumented workers—loaders, cleaners, fishmongers, and butchers.

A few days later, I passed by and noticed a group of new hires being trained in the parking lot. Inside the market, however, no one was staffing the seafood or meat counters, and the prices of goods quickly shot up.

This scenario could play out across the country if large-scale deportation campaigns are carried out. Many businesses that rely on undocumented workers—especially farms, construction firms, and cleaning services—would be targeted. These businesses would not quietly accept the loss of their cheap labor.

If they were forced to find legal workers to fill these jobs, it would be a difficult, if not impossible, task. Positions like farm work, construction, and cleaning are hard to fill with documented workers. As a result, prices for goods and services would rise, and it’s unclear how long American consumers would tolerate these price hikes.

When Trump first unveiled his cabinet, he outlined key policies he intended to pursue. But will these policies deliver the promised results?

An undocumented immigrant is arrested outside his house in Paramount, California, in 2020. Photo by Reuters

On domestic issues, Trump focused on two main goals: deporting undocumented immigrants and raising import tariffs. Though the challenges of implementing these policies differ, their outcomes may be similar.

Deporting undocumented immigrants is a logistical nightmare. It’s not just about the manpower required or deciding where to deport people. The real challenge lies in the resistance businesses would put up. Law enforcement isn't as simple as many think.

To arrest undocumented immigrants, authorities must first locate them. Knocking on doors to check documents is a time-consuming process. Stopping people on the streets is ineffective, as the odds of catching someone undocumented are slim. Moreover, how can authorities distinguish legal residents from undocumented ones? Should everyone carry passports, green cards, or visas when stepping outside?

Large-scale raids are more successful at workplaces, where businesses are required to verify their employees' immigration status. These are the areas where undocumented workers are most likely employed.

Enforcing tariffs, on the other hand, is a more straightforward process, as it doesn’t require a massive enforcement effort. Import taxes are paid at customs, and the only remaining question is how high those taxes will be. If tariffs are significant, the prices of goods in the U.S. will rise accordingly.

Given the immediate effects of both policies, many are wondering if Trump will follow through with his promises. The answer likely depends on how other countries respond to reduce tariffs on their goods.

Canada and Mexico may be willing to meet Trump’s demands—such as border cooperation to curb drug trafficking and illegal immigration—in exchange for lower tariffs.

Trump has not specified clear demands for China, likely because his primary goal is to incentivize companies to relocate their production and supply chains out of China. The tariffs on Chinese goods are intended to accelerate this shift.

The winners and losers from Trump’s tariff policies are already becoming apparent.

Countries that can attract businesses relocating from China stand to benefit greatly. Southeast Asian countries, in particular, are preparing for an influx of investment. Even small businesses in Vietnam and neighboring countries could profit by mass-producing household goods that the American market will need.

With four years remaining in Trump’s term, this is a rare opportunity for businesses to join the supply chains producing American consumer goods.

*Khanh Huynh is a lawyer living and working in the U.S.