Vietnam have 44% chance in Asian Cup group

Winger Nguyen Van Toan (L) is one of the five Vietnamese players left from the 2019 Asian Cup. Photo by VnExpress/Hieu Luong

We Global Football calculated the chances each team have at the 2024 Asian Cup. Vietnam's chance of advancing past the round of 16 to the quarterfinals is 12.6%, while making the semifinals is 4.28% and playing in the finals is 1.32%. Their chance of winning the title is 0.4%, according to the website.

We Global Football is a football statistics company specialized in calculations based on match simulations that utilize algorithms created via statistical indicators from each squad.

In this Asian Cup, Vietnam are in group D with Japan, Iraq, and Indonesia. Japan are the group’s number one contender for the title, with a winning chance of 32.64%. Japan's chance of passing the group stage is 99.52%, reaching the quarterfinals is 82.12%, making the semifinals is 64.76%, alongside a 47.2% chance of playing in the final.

Iraq have a 15.2% chance of winning the title. Their chance of passing the group stage is 81.96%, while their quarterfinals chances are 35.6%, making the semifinals is 16% and the probability that they'll make the final is only 6.56%.

Indonesia only have a 0.04% chance of winning the title. They have a 29.28% chance of surviving the group stage, with a 7% shot at the quarterfinals, 1.92% chances of making the semis, and only a 0.32% of playing in the final.

Vietnam’s arch-rival Thailand are ranked 17th in the tournament by the website’s statistics team. They have only 0.24% chance of winning the tournament, lower than Vietnam. But their chance of making it past the group stage is 56.8%, higher than Vietnam. The reason is because Thailand are in the less-competitive group F with opponents that are not too overpowering - Kyrgyzstan, Oman, and Saudi Arabia.

The 2024 Asian Cup will be held from Jan. 12 to Feb. 10 at nine stadiums in Qatar. Twenty-four teams are divided into six groups, with the top two teams of each group and four third-placed teams with the best results slated to enter the round of 16. The defending champion of the tournament is Qatar, while Japan have won the most titles at the event with four.

Vietnam will start the tournament with a Japan match on Jan. 14.