Standard Chartered lowers Vietnam GDP forecast

By Quynh Trang   September 1, 2021 | 06:22 am PT
Standard Chartered lowers Vietnam GDP forecast
A steel factory run by the Hoa Sen Group. Photo by VnExpress/Phuong Dong.
The Standard Chartered bank has revised its Vietnam GDP forecast from 6.5 percent to 4.7 percent for this year, due to the worsening Covid-19 situation.

This is the third time Standard Chartered has lowered its GDP growth forecasts for Vietnam for 2021, starting with 7.8 percent early this year and revising it later to 6.7 percent, 6.5 percent and 4.7 percent.

It has also lowered the forecast from 7.3 percent to 7 percent for 2022.

According to London-based multinational banking and financial services company, if Covid-19 infections are not brought under control by September, Vietnam’s economic growth may slow down, and the State Bank of Vietnam, the country’s central bank, is likely to further lower interest rates.

Economic growth is expected to slow down in the third quarter of this year, and rebound in the fourth one when improving global trade will support Vietnam’s imports and exports.

The bank says that the pandemic is likely to continue to weaken flows of investment to Vietnam and negatively affect its tourism sector from now until the end of this year.

Tim Leelahaphan, Standard Chartered’s economist for Thailand and Vietnam, said Vietnam had been affected by the pandemic like other countries in Asia and other parts of the world, but the bank remained bullish on the country’s economic prospects.

Vietnam’s General Statistics Office said industrial production in August decreased 4.2 percent against July, and fell 7.4 percent against August 2020.

The economy grew 5.6 percent in the first half of this year, compared to 2.9 percent last year.

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