Which scenario for Indonesia to qualify for World Cup after defeat to Saudi Arabia?

The fourth qualifying round features six teams split into two groups, with matches played in a round-robin format at neutral venues. The top two teams from each group will qualify directly for the 2026 World Cup, while the two second-placed teams will face each other in November for a spot in the intercontinental play-off.

Group standings are determined by points, goal difference and goals scored. If those are tied, head-to-head results are used, followed by fair play points and finally a draw by FIFA.

This format means Indonesia's chances remain alive, but they must beat Iraq in their second match on Saturday. A draw would leave them dependent on Saudi Arabia's results. For example, if Indonesia draw and Saudi Arabia beat Iraq by two goals, Indonesia could still advance. However, if Saudi Arabia win by a higher-scoring margin (4-3 or more), Iraq would take second place.

If Indonesia beat Iraq, they only need Saudi Arabia not to lose in the final match to secure second place. But if Iraq win, all three teams could end up tied on three points, bringing goal difference and total goals into play, which Indonesia currently hold a modest advantage with two goals scored.

The challenge for Indonesia lies in fatigue and recovery. They have two fewer rest days than Iraq and face psychological pressure after the narrow defeat to Saudi Arabia.

In previous meetings, Indonesia lost heavily to Iraq, 1-5 and 0-3 in the second-round qualifiers, and 1–3 at the 2023 Asian Cup group stage, but those matches came under coach Shin Tae-yong, before the current squad of naturalized players.

According to Bola, Indonesia's best hope is to finish second in Group B, which would send them to the playoff round in November.

"If they finish second, the road will be long, but it's better than being eliminated immediately," the outlet wrote.

The second-placed teams from each group will face off in a two-legged playoff on Nov. 13 and 18. The winner will advance to the intercontinental play-offs in March 2026, where they will compete against teams from Africa, North and Central America, South America, and Oceania.

"This path is very difficult and rarely favors Asian teams," Bola noted. "History shows that very few Asian sides have managed to qualify this way."