Property market expects money inflows following lending rate cuts

Since the start of 2023, the State Bank of Vietnam has continuously reduced policy interest rates, by a total of 0.5-2 percentage points per year. It has also ordered credit institutions to minimise expenses to lower lending interest rates to aid businesses, people, and economic recovery.

The Government, ministries, and sectors have also issued an array of other support policies to remove bottlenecks in the economy.

These factors have been providing a boost for the real estate market to recover faster, more safely, and more sustainably, which also indicates that support policies are gradually proving useful, experts opined.

Dr Can Van Luc, Chief Economist at the Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam (BIDV) and member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council, held that the property market underwent the most trying time, including financial difficulties caused by corporate bond-related problems.

The market has been gradually bouncing back since May, with the second quarter recording better results than in the first quarter. Industrial parks now have an occupancy rate of 76%, he noted.

Investors said prices of real estate stocks have increased 18% and construction tickers 39%. Procedural and legal obstacles facing many real estate projects have also been tackled.

Interest rates have returned to the levels in the first half of 2022.

Specialists of the WiGroup JSC, which provides economic data and fintech solutions in Vietnam, forecast the property market will witness observable improvements from late 2023 or early 2024. Compared to the pre-pandemic period, developments in the market at present are similar to those in 2014-2015.

They pointed out that the investor sentiment has improved, procedures related to investment procedures been removed, interest rates slashed, lending ceiling limits raised, and public investment disbursement accelerated while consumption and tourism stimulated. These factors are fueling real estate transactions.

Lower interest rates will be the main driver for the property sector. While deposit interest rates have been reduced since Q1, lending rate cuts are slower but still continue. Besides, a more favourable legal corridor has also helped facilitate real estate supply, according to WiGroup.

Nguyen Quoc Anh, Deputy Director General of Batdongsan.com.vn – an online property trading platform, said if deposit interest rates continue to drop to under 10% by the end of this year, the money people put into their deposit accounts in late 2022, when deposit interest rates surged, will be withdrawn and channelled into the market.

Echoing the view, Chairman of the Vietnam Association of Realtors Nguyen Van Dinh perceived that if lending interest rates for both new and old loans decline, the financial pressure on investors will ease. Besides, if deposit interest rates are brought down to under 5%, money will return to real estate and foster transactions in the market.