Indonesia may surpass US in university enrollment by 2035

A new analysis from Times Higher Education's data team projects that the country will leapfrog both the U.S. and Brazil by 2035 to become the world's third-largest university system by student population, after China and India, a shift that signals a major realignment in global higher-education demand.

The scale of the shift is striking. Indonesia is expected to add 4.3 million more university students over the next decade, bringing its total to around 13 million, an expansion driven by both rising participation rates and the momentum of a young, growing population. Enrollment is climbing at every level, from bachelor's degrees to master's and doctoral programs, signaling a nationwide push toward upskilling in an increasingly competitive economy.

The U.S., in contrast, is facing structural headwinds. Lucia Costantini, a lead data scientist at dataHE, said America's enrollment patterns are increasingly shaped by demographic limits: more young people are choosing to go to university, but the size of that age group is shrinking; older learners are enrolling at lower rates; and population growth is not strong enough to support a rebound, Times Higher Education reported. Postgraduate enrollment is affected by the same forces, meaning the U.S. system is losing share globally even as its institutions remain influential, she added.

Across Asia, however, demand is rising at a historic pace. South Asia is projected to reach 66 million university students by 2035, while East Asia is expected to hit 53 million.

India and China will continue to dominate globally, with projected totals of 53 million and 47 million students respectively.

Southeast and West Asia are also on track for major expansions as urbanization accelerates and economies shift toward higher-skill sectors.

Not all regions will grow. Russia is expected to see the sharpest decline among the world's 20 largest systems, while most of Eastern Europe, including Albania, Belarus and Lithuania, is projected to experience steep enrollment drops tied to long-term population shrinkage.

Finances tell a different story. Even with fewer students, U.S. universities are expected to see significant increases in non-research income, from tuition, philanthropy and other streams, potentially rising by an additional $84 billion by 2035. That surpasses projected gains for China, Germany and the U.K.

Indonesia is forecast to generate nearly $6 billion in new revenue, placing it among the world’s fastest-growing systems by financial scale.