HCMC new apartment supply to remain scarce in 2025

The figure includes units at recently revived projects like the Gem Riverside in HCMC’s Thu Duc City, The Forest Gem in Binh Thanh District and D Aqua in District 8, property consultancy CBRE said in a note.

Though double this year’s number, it is only half of new supply in 2022 when the market was active, it added.

Giang Huynh, head of research at Savills, another property consultancy, said the city needs around 50,000 apartments per year for housing, primarily in the low-priced segment.

CBRE expected around 3,000 units to be launched in the last quarter of 2024, taking new supply for the year to 5,000, down 60% from last year and less than a third of the supply in 2022.

Supply has decreased because developers are taking more time to observe the market and are postponing launches to the next few years, it explained. Besides, few projects meet the legal requirements to be sold, it added.

Le Hoang Chau, chairman of the HCMC Real Estate Association, said only nine new commercial housing projects have been approved this year, most of them small-sized. This is far from sufficient to meet the city’s housing demand, he said.

The Vietnam Association of Realtors expected supply to improve next year thanks to the amendments to the Land Law, Housing Law and Real Estate Trading Law that took effect in August, but it is unlikely to return to the high levels seen in 2019.

CBRE said the supply shortage is expected to drive up apartment prices in both the primary and secondary markets.

Its senior director, Vo Huynh Tuan Kiet, said: "Apartment prices in HCMC could increase by 5-7% next year. The market will still absorb new units due to the high housing demand and little competition."

Market research firm JLL Vietnam expected the majority of new supply next year to be in the premium segment priced at above VND 60 million (US$2,410) per square meter.

Experts suggested that resolving legal hurdles to both new approvals and stalled developments could add 148,000 new apartments to the market.

This is the optimal solution to boost supply and stabilize prices, they added.