The Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association came up with the estimate based on customs data, which shows exports to major markets growing at double-digit rates.
In the first 10 months, for which official data is available, shipments to China rose by 30% year-on-year to $4.1 billion, while exports to the U.S., South Korea and Thailand jumped by 35%, 41% and 70%.
Durian was the best-selling item, making up more than $3 billion worth of fruit and vegetable exports in the period, with China accounting for $3 billion.
Vietnam has been the second largest supplier with a 39% market share, trailing Thailand’s 60.2%.
Dang Phuc Nguyen, general secretary of the association, said China has very high demand for fruits and vegetables, especially Vietnamese durian.
If exports to the country continue to grow at current rates, Vietnam could surpass Thailand as China’s top durian supplier in the next year or two, he said.
He expected fruit and vegetable exports to touch a record $7 billion this year.
Vietnam gained approval to export frozen durian and fresh coconut to China in August, and many exporters have since reported signing large contracts to supply them. One company said it has a deal to ship up to 1,500 containers of coconut.
Coconut, passion fruit and some other agricultural products are growing in popularity in the U.S., while Thailand has increased imports of fruits from Vietnam this year as its own production has been hit by unfavorable weather.