Exports on path to recovery

Exports in October rose 5.9% year-on-year to $32.31 billion, according to the General Statistics Office.

"Vietnam started the fourth quarter on a positive note, with exports continuing to stage a gradual turnaround," said lender HSBC in a note.

But recovery was uneven across industries. Of the 34 main export categories, only 15 went up while the rest declined last month.

Research firm S&P Global Market Intelligence said that in October new orders for Vietnamese goods rose for the third month in a row thanks to improving demand.

Buyers, however, are still reluctant to place new orders, and the growth in demand is too slow for manufacturers to start increasing production.

"There was some more positive news on the employment front as a seven-month period of job cutting came to an end," said Andrew Harker, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

This, along with rising purchasing and positive sentiment, suggests that firms are becoming more confident that recent demand improvements will be sustained in the months ahead, he added.

Although exports fell 7.1% year-on-year to $291.28 billion in the first 10 months, HSBC expects growth in the remaining two months, partly driven by agriculture produce, which has been a bright spot for the country this year.

The bank said inflation was 3.6% last month and for the whole year will be at 4%, below the country’s target of 4.5%.

S&P, however, warned of inflation risks because of rising oil prices, which push up input costs, and the depreciation of the dong against the U.S. dollar, which adds to cost pressures.

Business therefore have increased their own selling prices at a solid pace, it said.