Experts fear 6.5% GDP growth target a bridge too far

Speaking at the Vietnam Economic Forum on Tuesday, Can Van Luc, chief economist of state-owned bank BIDV, said in the base case scenario GDP growth would be 5.2-5.5%.

But if the global recession worsens and Vietnam fails to take full advantage of opportunities from new growth drivers, it would be 4.4-4.5%, he said.

In case the world economy recovers soon, and new growth drivers like digital transformation, regional linkages and stronger development of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City are fully utilized, it could be 5.5-6%, he said.

Nguyen Xuan Thanh, a lecturer in public policy at the Fulbright University Vietnam, forecast growth of 5.5-5.9% if public spending reaches 95% of the target.

Achieving 6.5% would be "extremely difficult, if not impossible, because [for that] the economy must grow by 9% in the last two quarters of the year."

Data from the Ministry of Planning and Investment shows the economy grew at only 3.72% in the first six months of the year, the lowest rate in the last 12 years.