Netflix hits record high as strong subscriber additions ease growth worries

A woman stands next to a logo of Netflix during an event in Mumbai, India, Feb. 29, 2024. Photo by Reuters

The company, widely seen as the winner of Hollywood's streaming wars, saw its stock rise nearly 10% and was set to add more than $28 billion to its market value of about $295 billion, if gains hold.

It topped estimates for quarterly subscriber additions by more than 1 million and projected higher sign-ups sequentially for the last three months of the year when South Korean drama "Squid Game" returns.

The company's profit and revenue also beat estimates, a positive sign for its efforts to shift investor focus away from subscriber growth amid what some analysts see as an inevitable slowdown in sign-ups after the success of its password-sharing curbs.

The 5.1 million users Netflix added in the third quarter were below the 8.76 million additions in the year-ago period.

"The third quarter showed the slowdown in subscriber growth that we've been expecting, but Netflix has other areas of opportunity to continue boosting its financial performance," Morningstar analyst Matthew Dolgin said.

Part of the push includes price increases. After increasing fees in Japan, the Middle East and Africa as well as parts of Europe in recent weeks, Netflix is hiking prices in Italy and Spain, and some analysts expect a similar move in the U.S. next year.

"Netflix did not announce any price change, though (it) did hint that there is room to take price with stronger engagement," Bernstein analysts said.

The ad-supported tier also showed signs of progress as it accounted for more than 50% of sign-ups in countries where it was available in the third quarter, though Netflix does not expect advertising to become a primary growth driver until 2026.

At least 20 analysts raised their price targets on the stock following results, bringing the median target to $760 from $706.38, according to data compiled by LSEG.

Netflix's shares were trading at 30.40 times 12-month forward profit estimates, compared with 18.50 for Walt Disney and Comcast's 9.65.

So far this year, Netflix's stock has risen about 41.2%, Disney has been up 6.9%, while Warner Bros Discovery has shed about 31%.

Netflix is betting on a strong line-up including the new "Knives Out" movie, the latest season of "Stranger Things" and live events including two National Football League games on Christmas Day to draw subscribers.

"Peers in the legacy media space are losing money hand over fist, meaning Netflix can push its advantage in content creation while others can't stomach allocating more capital," said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.