Vietnam's drone economy could reach $10B by 2035: experts

Vietnam could develop a multibillion-dollar economy around drones and other low-altitude aircraft, but it needs clearer regulations, stronger domestic technological capabilities, and commercially viable applications, experts said at a forum in HCMC.

Speaking at a seminar on Oct. 27, Nguyen Minh Phuong, deputy director of the Low-Altitude Space Development Institute under the Vietnam Aerospace Association, said the global market for drone services was projected to reach $128 billion by 2030.

Vietnam's low-altitude economy alone could be worth $10 billion by 2035, she said.

The seminar was held on the sidelines of the 2026 Autumn Economic Forum, hosted by the HCMC People's Committee.

The low-altitude economy covers economic activities conducted below 1,000 meters, potentially extending to 5,000 meters depending on national requirements. It includes unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), vertical takeoff and landing aircraft, supporting infrastructure, and management systems, with applications in agriculture, logistics, environmental monitoring, transport, communications, and entertainment.

Nguyen Minh Phuong, deputy director of the Low-Altitude Space Development Institute under the Vietnam Aerospace Association, speaks at a seminar on the sidelines of the 2026 Autumn Economic Forum in HCMC. Photo by VnExpress/Quynh Tran

Phuong said the global low-altitude economy was already worth hundreds of billions of dollars, but Vietnam's success would depend on turning market potential into economic value and strengthening domestic technological capabilities.

Vietnam has established an initial policy framework for the sector, she said. Conclusion 99 of the Politburo identifies low-altitude airspace as a national resource and emphasizes the need to protect airspace sovereignty, data security, cybersecurity, borders, maritime areas, and major cities.

Under the development goals outlined at the seminar, Vietnam aims to establish three national flight-testing zones and at least one national UAV research and testing center by 2030.

By 2045, the low-altitude economy is expected to contribute 1.5% of GDP, with a localization rate exceeding 85%.

Achieving these targets will require more than aircraft development. The sector also needs infrastructure, data systems, software, and operational services, Phuong said.

She called for translating policy objectives into practical regulations, improving coordination among government agencies, making licensing procedures more transparent, and introducing controlled testing mechanisms suited to the risks of different applications.

Potential uses include precision agriculture, infrastructure inspection, logistics, healthcare, and digital mapping. However, investment priorities should reflect actual demand, operational feasibility, and economic returns rather than market size alone, she said.

Nguyen Thi Hai Hang, former director of the Vietnam Aviation Academy and vice chairwoman of the Low-Altitude Economy Alliance, said technological advances alone would not guarantee commercial success.

"Every sustainable application must originate from the practical needs of the market economy, rather than simply from technological development," she said.

Nguyen Thi Hai Hang, former director of the Vietnam Aviation Academy and vice chairwoman of the Low-Altitude Economy Alliance, speaks at the seminar. Photo by VnExpress/Quynh Tran

Hang cited agricultural drones in the Mekong Delta as an example of existing demand. Farmers have been using them for seeding, irrigation, and pesticide spraying to address practical production needs.

More than 3,000 agricultural drones operate across approximately 1.5 million hectares in the Mekong Delta, she said.

Vietnam could build on this established demand instead of trying to create entirely new markets. Other opportunities include supplying components to global supply chains and developing software, artificial intelligence, and applications using existing hardware platforms.

With limited resources, Vietnam cannot develop every segment simultaneously, Hang said. She recommended prioritizing safe operations, economic efficiency, and added value before gradually strengthening domestic technological capabilities.

Commercialization remains a challenge

Nguyen Van Thuat, deputy director of the Department of Digital Economy and Digital Society under the Ministry of Science and Technology, said successful pilot projects should not be mistaken for commercially viable businesses.

He outlined three conditions for drone applications to succeed in the market: customers must be willing to pay for services that deliver better economic results than traditional methods; operations must be safe and reliable under real-world conditions; and solutions must be scalable across localities without requiring a complete redesign of technology, infrastructure, or regulations.

A drone that performs well in a controlled testing area may not be suitable for continuous commercial operations, Thuat said.

Nguyen Van Thuat, deputy director of the Department of Digital Economy and Digital Society under the Ministry of Science and Technology, speaks at the seminar. Photo by VnExpress/Quynh Tran

According to Thuat, the Ministry of National Defense is working with other agencies on an action program to submit to the government.

The program focuses on five areas: establishing risk-based regulations for low-altitude airspace management; creating interagency coordination mechanisms while preserving each agency's responsibilities; developing national digital management infrastructure, particularly an unmanned aircraft traffic management (UTM) platform for real-time flight monitoring; improving technical standards; and developing infrastructure and skilled personnel for UAV research, design, manufacturing, and operations.

Phuong said Vietnam must also address institutional, security, technological, and economic challenges while building public trust in drone applications.

Regulations should clarify responsibilities for airspace management, licensing, incident response, and technical compliance. Drone operations near airports, residential areas, and critical infrastructure also require appropriate monitoring as flight volumes increase.

Vietnam needs to reduce its reliance on foreign technology and supply chains by strengthening domestic capabilities in design, cybersecurity, maintenance, and core technologies, she said.

The economic viability of UAV applications should be assessed over their entire life cycle, including equipment, personnel, batteries, maintenance, insurance, and connectivity costs.

Noise, privacy concerns, accident risks, and potential data misuse must also be addressed to gain public acceptance.

Phuong proposed a two-stage development roadmap for the next decade. From 2027 to 2030, Vietnam should focus on technical standards, interagency coordination, and controlled testing zones. From 2031 to 2036, priorities should shift toward building an integrated ecosystem for research, manufacturing, and services, commercializing technologies, and expanding markets.

"This approach could help establish domestic supply chains, increase opportunities to commercialize research results, and expand markets for service providers," she said.

The 2026 Autumn Economic Forum was held at Thiskyhall Sala Convention Center in HCMC, with sideline sessions beginning Oct. 26 ahead of its official opening on Oct. 28.

The forum focused on new growth drivers, including emerging technologies, digitalization, green transformation, finance, value chains, and new models of cooperation.