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The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently forecasted some 60% chance of El Niño forming in the late Northern Hemisphere summer of 2026.
Meanwhile, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology predicts that the phenomenon could begin as early as June, and the Japan Meteorological Agency has also cited a 60% chance of El Niño occurring during the summer.
According to IFL Science, El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural climate cycle driven by shifts in ocean temperatures and atmospheric pressure in the tropical eastern Pacific. These fluctuations set off a chain reaction that affects global weather patterns, influencing rainfall, droughts, storms, and heatwaves. ENSO consists of three phases: El Nino (warm phase), La Nina (cold phase), and neutral. Currently, the world is in the tail end of La Nina.
NOAA models suggest a 60% chance of transitioning to a neutral phase between February and April, followed by a potential shift to El Nino.
"There are signs that La Nina is weakening, and neutral ENSO conditions should return in the next couple of months," Jason Nicholls, a weather forecaster at AccuWeather, told Reuters. "Drought conditions have started to appear in parts of southeast Australia and a transition to El Nino could lead to worsening drought conditions and issues for the next growing season."
El Nino typically raises global temperatures by about 0.2°C, contributing to extreme weather events like droughts and floods. In a world already experiencing warming due to greenhouse gases, it could amplify the temperature rise, increasing the likelihood of record heat.
2025 was one of the hottest years globally, despite the cooling effects of La Nina. Without this influence and with El Nino's warming, 2026 and 2027 are likely to be even hotter.
In addition to raising global temperatures, El Nino will bring widespread weather changes. Experts predict an increase in rainfall and the risk of flooding in the southern U.S. and Europe, while the northern U.S. and Canada will experience drier and warmer conditions. El Nino typically weakens hurricane activity in the Atlantic but intensifies storms in the central and eastern Pacific.
