Vietnam see World Cup chance fade after double loss

By Hoang Nguyen   September 9, 2021 | 02:01 am PT
Vietnam see World Cup chance fade after double loss
Midfielder Nguyen Quang Hai (L) during the World Cup qualifiers game between Vietnam and Australia on September 7, 2021. Photo by VnExpress/Lam Thoa
Consecutive defeats in the final round of World Cup qualifiers have slimmed down Vietnam's chance of advance.

According to statistics site We Global, the chance for Vietnam to advance before the final round was 4.44 percent. After the previous two games, the number has dropped to 0.28 percent.

The probability for Vietnam to finish third (the position to qualify for the playoffs) is just 1.36 percent, while the chance of elimination is 98.36 percent.

The Golden Dragons lost 1-3 to Saudi Arabia on Sept. 2, then were beaten 0-1 by Australia five days later.

In the same boat are China, who have also lost the first two games (against Australia and Japan). China’s chance of elimination is 97.80 percent.

Japan are still the biggest contender to advance, despite losing the first game. After a victory in the second game, their chance to move on is 84.04 percent, followed by Saudi Arabia (55.72) and Australia (51.76).

The site ran a risk analysis using Monte Carlo, a computational algorithm that relies on repeated random sampling to obtain numerical results of the third qualifying round of 2022 World Cup Asian qualifiers. We Global put out the probability based on its own evaluation of teams.

This is Vietnam's very first time in the final round of World Cup qualifiers. The team will play the third and fourth game in October, against China and Oman.

go to top