Supercomputer, AI predict Euro 2024 winner

Supercomputer Opta is known among football fans for accurately predicting the champions of several previous tournaments. Its analysis is based on data from teams participating in Euro 2024 and 10,000 times running simulations. The parameters for prediction included pre-tournament performance, player performance and match history between participating teams.

Opta believes that England will be the champion of Euro 2024. Its simulation shows that the team captained by Harry Kane has a 48.2% chance of reaching the semifinals, a 31.1% chance of reaching the final, and a 19.9% chance of winning the trophy.

France are England's most formidable opponent as they also have a 48.1% chance of reaching the semifinals, 30.4% of reaching the final and 19.1% of winning the title. The title-winning rates of Germany, Spain and Portugal are 12.4%, 9.8% and 9.2%.

The odds of advancing to the semifinals (dark blue), final (medium blue) and winning the title (light blue) at Euro 2024 according to analysis by Opta

Before the start of Euro 2024, Opta predicted that host Germany would win their opening match. As a result, Germany beat Scotland 5-1.

Meanwhile, Belgian software company Luzmo used AI program Octopus and its cloud platform to run a million-time simulation of the matches in Euro 2024. On average, every 100 simulations, France wins the title 22 times, the highest rate among teams. Luzmo's country Belgium only have a 3.4% chance of winning the trophy.

"The model itself is essentially a match simulator that looks at things like the team's offensive rating, defensive rating, then takes into account potential and expected targets before comparing them to other teams to get the final result," Haroen Vermylen, CTO of Luzmo, told The Register.

Octopus also correctly predicted the Germany and Scotland match when it said there was a 76% chance of winning for the host. It will continuously be updated with scores and other metrics to edit the results over time, but for now, it believes Euro 2024 will be a race between France, Portugal and Croatia.

Germany forward Florian Wirtz (number 17) celebrates the opening goal in the 5-1 win over Scotland in the opening game of Euro 2024 at Allianz Arena, Munich on June 14, 2024. Photo by AP

Most free and popular AI programs such as Google’s Gemini, Microsoft’s Copilot or OpenAI’s ChatGPT refuse to predict the winning team.

However, the paid version of ChatGPT Plus evaluates the "high possibility" of Germany winning the title at home thanks to "a combination of youth and experience, a solid foundation from the Bundesliga and impressive achievements in previous international tournaments."

Meanwhile, the advanced version of Gemini gave the same result as Octopus that the trophy will belong to France.