Man City top contender for Champions League title

Striker Erling Haaland celebratesafter Man City beat Inter Milan in the Champions League final at Ataturk Stadium, Istanbul, Turkey on June 11, 2023. Photo by Reuters

The number of teams participating in the Champions League this season has increased from 32 to 36. Instead of being divided into eight groups like in previous seasons, 36 teams will play in the same group like a national championship. Each team will play eight matches against eight different opponents, including four home and four away games.

The top eight teams will go straight to the round of 16. The teams placed from 9th to 24th will have to play two playoff games to compete for the remaining eight slots, while the bottom 12 teams will be eliminated.

According to Opta's calculation, Man City are the strongest contender with 25.3% chance of winning the title this season. Pep Guardiola's team has a 77.5% chance of reaching the top eight in the first stage, 95.2% of getting past the round of 16, 73.8% in the quarter-finals, 55% in the semi-finals and 39.9% in the final at the Allianz Arena, Munich on May 31, 2025.

According to the draw results, in the first stage, Man City will face Inter Milan, Club Brugge, Feyenoord and Sparta Prague at home and visit PSG, Juventus, Sporting Lisbon and Slovan Bratislava.

Excluding penalties, Man City have been unbeaten in their last 23 Champions League games with 16 wins. If they avoid losing their first two matches this season, they will equal the longest unbeaten streak of a club in the history of the tournament, 25 games by their city rival Manchester United.

Real Madrid are the second contender with a 93.6% chance of making it out of the first stage, a 69.8% chance of reaching the quarter-finals, a 48.9% chance of reaching the semifinals and a 31.6% chance of reaching the final.

Kylian Mbappe is predicted to have an 18.2% chance of winning the title with Real Madrid and lift the Champions League trophy for the first time in his career.

According to the draw results, Real Madrid will face Borussia Dortmund, AC Milan, Red Bull Salzburg and Stuttgart at the Bernabeu, and visit Liverpool, Atalanta, Lille and Brest. Last season, Real won the title when they beat Dortmund 2-0 in the final at Wembley Stadium, London.

With 10.9%, Inter Milan are the only other club that have over 10% chance of winning the title. Following them are Arsenal (6.3%), Bayer Leverkusen (5.4%), Barcelona (5.2%), Liverpool (4.2%), Bayern Munich and PSG (4.1%).

There are nine teams that are predicted to have absolutely no chance of winning the title: Celtic (Scotland), Dinamo Zagreb (Croatia), Salzburg, Sturm Graz (Austria), Brest (France), Red Star Belgrade (Serbia), Shakhtar Donetsk (Ukraine), Slovan Bratislava (Slovakia) and Young Boys (Switzerland).

Opta also compiled a table analyzing the difficulty of each club's schedule in the group stage. PSG have the toughest schedule with an average difficulty score of 92.4 points. Luis Enrique's team will play Man City, Atletico Madrid, PSV and Girona at home, and visit Bayern Munich, Arsenal, Salzburg and Stuttgart.

Celtic, on the other hand, have the easiest schedule with a difficulty score of 87.4 points. The Scottish club will face Slovan Bratislava, Borussia Dortmund, Atalanta, Leipzig, Bruges, Dinamo Zagreb, Young Boys, Atalanta and but have only a 21.1% chance of making it out of the first stage.