Thailand could reach Sahara-level heat by 2070: study

The warning was recently made by Tara Buakamsri, director of the Climate Connectors program, in an interview with Thai newspaper The Nation.

He referenced Owen Mulhern’s 2020 article "Too Hot To Live: Climate Change In Thailand" published by Earth.org, which examined findings from the 2020 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) study "Future of the human climate niche" by Chi Xu of Nanjing University and colleagues.

At the center of the research is the concept of the "human climate niche," a relatively narrow temperature range in which humans have historically lived, developed societies, and built civilizations.

The study found that populations have typically clustered in regions with mean annual temperatures between about 11 and 15 degrees Celsius.

While many communities today already live in warmer climates, they remain within broadly adaptable limits. Concern arises when average temperatures exceed 29 C, a threshold currently found on only about 0.8% of Earth's land surface, largely concentrated in the Sahara Desert.

Under a high-emissions scenario, however, this zone could expand significantly, potentially exposing up to one-third of the global population to such extreme heat conditions.

People participate in the Songkran water festival to celebrate the Thai New Year in Bangkok, Thailand, April 13, 2026. Photo by AP

Thailand is already approaching that threshold. With a current average annual temperature of around 26 C, projections suggest the country could surpass 29 C by the end of the century, effectively shifting toward climate conditions more typical of desert regions.

Such a shift would represent more than hotter weather. It would signal a fundamental change in environmental conditions that could significantly reduce human health, productivity, and economic activity.

Extreme heat is already a recurring issue in the country. Between March and May, temperatures frequently exceed 40 C. During the 2016 heatwave, NASA's Earth Observatory reported land surface temperatures up to 12 C above average, with more than 50 locations breaking daily records. Mae Hong Son recorded 44.6 C in late April that year, the highest temperature ever observed in Thailand.

In 2024, another intense heatwave affected the region, with Thailand’s northern and northeastern provinces among the hottest. The highest temperatures reached 44 C in some areas on April 28, according to the Thai Meteorological Department as cited by Bangkok Post.

The department has warned that Thailand will continue to experience hot to very hot conditions in 2026, with temperatures expected to exceed 44 C in some areas this week.