Super Typhoon Ragasa to hold strength today, weaken rapidly from midweek

The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) said the storm was over the northeastern waters of the East Sea (South China Sea) on Tuesday morning with peak winds near 221 kph, moving west-northwest at 20 kph.

By 4 a.m. Wednesday, Ragasa is expected to be over the northern East Sea, about 450 km east of China's Leizhou Peninsula, with maximum winds of 184–220 kph. The system will maintain its track while accelerating to 20–25 kph.

By 4 a.m. Thursday, the storm center should be over southern Guangzhou Province, packing 118–133 kph winds and gusts of 167–183 kph, on the same heading and speed. It is then forecast to weaken quickly to a tropical depression and reach northern Vietnam by 4 a.m. Friday with winds down to 39–49 kph.

The trajectory of Super Typhoon Ragasa. Graphics by Vietnam Disasters Monitoring System

Japan's Meteorological Agency currently estimates winds at 198 kph and projects roughly 108 kph near Leizhou by Thursday, further weakening as the system enters the Gulf of Tonkin. Hong Kong Observatory service also expects a track north of Leizhou with continued weakening.

Ragasa has been assessed to be stronger at sea than Typhoon Yagi in 2024 and the most powerful storm globally this year to date, but NCHMF director Mai Van Khiem said several factors will cause Ragasa to fade quickly in the coming days.

He cited two main reasons: interaction with the Chinese mainland as the storm moves north, and a continental high-pressure system driving dry air (30–40% humidity) southward. "The entire northern part of the storm will be affected by this dry air. Dry air intrusions into the typhoon structure are a key factor causing the storm to weaken as it moves into the southern waters of Guangdong Province and Leizhou Island on Wednesday," said Khiem.

From Wednesday evening and overnight, the Gulf of Tonkin, including Vietnamese islands Bach Long Vi, Van Don, Co To, Cat Hai, and Hon Dau, will see winds strengthening to 61–88 kph and waves of 2–4 m; areas near the center could reach level 10–12 with gusts of 150–166 kph and waves of 4–6 m. Coastal Quang Ninh and Hai Phong may experience storm surge of 0.5–1 m.

On land, from early Thursday, Vietnamese coastal areas from Quang Ninh to Thanh Hoa are forecast to see 50–61 kph winds, with locations closer to the track hitting 75–102 kph; inland northeast Vietnam may see 39–61 kph.

From Wednesday night to Friday, rainfall totals in northern Vietnam, Thanh Hoa, and Nghe An are expected to reach 100–250 mm, with some spots exceeding 400 mm, raising the risk of urban flooding.

Preparations

Hong Kong hunkered down for Super Typhoon Ragasa on Tuesday, shutting schools and some businesses, while most passenger flights from the city's airport are to be suspended later in the day until early on Thursday, Reuters reported.

Authorities in the financial hub are set to raise the typhoon signal to 8, its third highest, on Tuesday afternoon, which will prompt most businesses and transport services to shut down. About 700 flights have been disrupted.

The observatory said it will assess if it needs to issue a higher warning later on Tuesday or early Wednesday, according to Reuters.

Thousands of residents were evacuated from villages in northern Philippines on Monday, while schools and offices across the archipelago and in neighboring Taiwan were shut down.

People walk in the rain caused by typhoon Ragasa in Taipei, Taiwan, Sept. 23, 2025. Photo by AP

In Vietnam, Deputy Prime Minister Tran Hong Ha on Monday directed ministries, agencies, and localities from northern and central regions to stay on high alert, prepare for worst-case scenarios, and ensure public safety. Coastal provinces, especially from Quang Ninh to Thua Thien-Hue, were asked to postpone non-essential meetings, promptly warn vessels, restrict or suspend sea activities as needed, and ready evacuation plans and resources.

Ragasa formed from a tropical depression on the evening of Sept. 18 and intensified by nine levels to become a super typhoon with wind speed surpassing 200 kph in four days.

The Northwest Pacific in 2024 has already recorded three super typhoons—Yagi, Gaemi, and Krathon. Yagi made landfall in Vietnam, triggering severe winds, landslides, flash floods, and widespread damage that killed 318 people, left 26 missing, and caused nearly VND84 trillion (US$3.29 billion) in losses.

From October to December, forecasters expect the number of typhoons and tropical depressions in the East Sea to be above average, with more than four systems likely and two potentially making direct landfall.