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A study of 14 regional economies, done by BMI Research, a unit of Fitch Group BMI, foresees fourth quarter “movement” in just four economies, with improvements in Vietnam and South Korea, and drops in Malaysia and the Philippines. (See table for details).
Overall, the study “sees stronger sales and improving demographics in Vietnam as well as improving macroeconomic conditions in South Korea” balancing “bleaker macroeconomic outlooks in Malaysia and the Philippines.”
Asia Consumer Electronics Risk/Reward Index, Q418
| Country/Territory | Industry Rewards |
Country/ Territory Rewards |
Industry Risk |
Country/ Territory Risk |
Q418 CE Score | Q-o-Q Change | Q418 Rank |
| Australia | 60.0 | 72.5 | 85.0 | 76.0 | 68.9 | 0.0 | 1 |
| Japan | 61.6 | 67.5 | 85.0 | 75.6 | 68.4 | 0.0 | 2 |
| South Korea | 58.3 | 55.0 | 70.0 | 86.4 | 63.9 | 0.1 | 3 |
| Hong Kong | 50.0 | 70.0 | 80.0 | 72.0 | 62.5 | 0.0 | 4 |
| Singapore | 45.0 | 67.5 | 85.0 | 84.5 | 62.4 | 0.0 | 5 |
| China | 73.3 | 22.5 | 55.0 | 70.0 | 58.1 | 0.0 | 6 |
| Taiwan | 45.0 | 42.5 | 70.0 | 86.5 | 54.9 | 0.0 | 7 |
| Malaysia | 46.7 | 37.5 | 70.0 | 79.3 | 53.1 | -0.1 | 8 |
| Indonesia | 46.7 | 27.5 | 60.0 | 70.3 | 47.8 | 0.0 | 9 |
| Philippines | 45.0 | 27.5 | 70.0 | 67.6 | 47.8 | -0.4 | 10 |
| India | 53.3 | 10.0 | 60.0 | 66.3 | 45.9 | 0.0 | 11 |
| Thailand | 41.7 | 20.0 | 55.0 | 79.4 | 44.7 | 0.0 | 12 |
| Vietnam | 43.3 | 20.0 | 50.0 | 67.8 | 42.8 | 0.9 | 13 |
| Pakista | 38.3 | 10.0 | 40.0 | 45.0 | 32.8 | 0.0 | 14 |
| Average | 50.6 | 39.3 | 66.8 | 73.3 | 53.9 | 0.1 |
Vietnam’s Industry Rewards score is predicted to rise by 1.7 points as BMI revised its medium-term audio-visual and handset sales forecasts owing to stronger than expected sales.
It notes that “rapid and aggressive 4G roll-outs by operators in Vietnam and the local adoption of smartphones supporting the new technology will be a boost to handset sales.”
It also finds the computer hardware outlook “coloured by slowing personal computer sales amid continued cannibalisation by smartphones.”
The study says the main supporting factors for increased spending on devices is a combination of robust increase in purchasing power and relatively low device penetration rates in product categories including smartphones and flat-panel TV sets.
It also strikes a note of caution for Vietnam, saying there a significant risk higher value sales do not materialize as incomes rise because of “global and domestic oversupply that extends price erosion in key product categories.”
