Keeping 2020 inflation below 4 pct will be difficult: official

By Minh Son   December 28, 2019 | 12:59 pm GMT+7

Keeping CPI below 4 percent next year will be a tough task, challenging with prices of pork and other essentials being unpredictable variables.

One of the main drivers of consumer price index (CPI) growth has been the African swine flu epidemic which forced Vietnam to kill 6 million pigs this year, raising the price of pork and related products, Nguyen Bich Lam, head of the General Statistics Office (GSO), said at a press conference Friday.

Although the government has managed to keep CPI growth below 4 percent in the last three years, it will be difficult to meet this target in 2020 with the African swine flu forecast to remain a major challenge, Lam said.

The CPI in December rose a record 1.4 percent, the highest monthly increase in the last 9 years, and pork prices contributed 0.83 percentage points to this increase.

Pork prices had been subdued between March and June, but rose again from July, and has soared in the recent three months. In October, average pork prices rose 7.85 percent, November, 18.51 percent, and December, 19.7 percent, according to GSO.

This trend is expected to continue through the first quarter of 2020, due to higher consumption during the Tet, or Lunar New Year holiday, which falls between January 25 and January 31.

The public service sector is also expected to put pressure on CPI next year with upcoming revisions to medical prices, education service prices and wages. 

 
 
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