GDP to grow 6.3% next year: HSBC

At a seminar on business prospects held on Monday in Hanoi, Frederic Neumann, chief economist of HSBC's Asian economics research, said the bank forecast Vietnam’s economy to grow 5% this year and 6.3% next year.

Neumann said exports will increase in 2024 when demand returns, helping Vietnam grow stronger. The country’s export turnovers were down over 8% year-on-year to nearly U$260 billion in the first nine months, according to the General Statistics Office.

But the situation will turn around next year when the structure of global economic growth changes.

Consumers could return to shopping because they have not bought much in the past 1-1.5 years, he said. This means demand in Vietnam’s main export markets will increase, helping boost export turnovers.

The second driving force for Vietnam’s economy next year is domestic spending, including consumption and government purchases, which is forecast to increase.

The total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue rose by 9.7% in the first nine months, only half of the same period last year.

In addition to exports and domestic spending, Brook Taylor, CEO of VinaCapital, predicted financial, service and real estate sectors would recover after the current difficult period. Infrastructure was also predicted by experts to accelerate next year.

The outlook for 2024 is brighter, but Neumann said exports still posed risks because Vietnam has a high economic openness so it also depended heavily on exports.

If its main export markets such as the U.S., Europe, and China recovered less than forecast, imports would be reduced.

Accordingly, if world demand is weaker, it will affect Vietnam’s export growth pillars, experts said.