This could grow at 9% a year to VND124.2 trillion by 2027, according to British technology advisory firm Access Partnership.
But if Vietnamese businesses speed up adoption of e-commerce, online exports could jump to VND296.3 trillion, it said.
"Micro, small, and medium enterprises in Vietnam are in a prime position to reap significant benefits from the rapid growth of the e-commerce sector."
It added that global e-commerce acceleration provides an opportunity for Vietnam to tap into demand in overseas markets with its policy environment conducive for e-commerce exports.
Lai Viet Anh, deputy head of the Vietnam e-Commerce and Digital Economy Agency, said at a forum Friday that cross-border e-commerce has great potential and is in line with the government’s digital economy policy.
Some market researchers expect e-commerce exports to exceed $10 billion in the next four years.
The government has cut the online store registration fee by 50% and set up a program to train 5,000 businesses on cross-border e-commerce.
Gijae Seong, managing director of Amazon Global Selling Vietnam, said in 2023 "The export growth of Vietnamese businesses on Amazon is highest globally."
The number of Vietnamese sellers on Amazon rose by 80% last year, and exports by 45% to over 10 million items.
Despite global challenges this year the opportunity for e-commerce exports await Vietnamese businesses, Seong added.