Analysts’ forecasts mixed for listed firms’ profit growth

By Dat Nguyen   January 19, 2020 | 09:14 pm PT
Analysts’ forecasts mixed for listed firms’ profit growth
Investors watch price boards at a securities firm in Ho Chi Minh City. Photo by VnExpress/Huu Khoa.
Stock brokerages cannot agree on whether listed firms’ profit rate will rise or decline this year from 2019.

Bao Viet Securities Jsc forecast 14 percent growth compared to an estimated 9.5 percent last year. It includes a prediction that banks’ profits are set to expand by over 20 percent.

Sectors such as steel, retail and information technology would also grow faster than the market average, thanks to the surging results of some top firms like steel producer Hoa Phat, electronics chain Mobile World and leading tech firm FPT, it added.

VNDIRECT forecast double-digit growth with the top 50 listed firms accounting for 21.7 percent of total growth.

But Hanoi-based Everest Securities said the after-tax profit growth rate could fall to 10 percent this year from its estimation for 2019 of 12 percent.

This would be a positive amid the tightened credit, high interest rates and the fact that manufacturing is going through an investment phase, it said.

Mirae Asset forecast an even lower growth rate of 9.5 percent this year against 10.5 growth in the first three quarters of last year, saying a possible revival in U.S.-China trade tensions could lead to slower global growth. 

Most stock analysts said banks would continue to do well after two years of restructuring and dealing with bad debts.

The three largest state-owned banks, BIDV, VietinBank and Vietcombank, are likely to account for 50 percent of listed banks’ profits, they said.

Real estate and construction could face challenges in acquiring credit and from legal issues, which could lead to lower supply, causing investors to move to other, safer asset classes, they added.

Vietnam’s 10 most profitable listed companies, half of them banks, earned pretax profits of VND110 trillion ($4.7 billion) in the first nine months of last year.

Vinhomes, a real estate unit of private conglomerate Vingroup, Vietcombank and state-run Petrovietnam Gas Corporation (PV Gas) headed the list.

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