In group C, topped by Japan who have qualified for the 2026 World Cup, Indonesia are currently in fourth place with 9 points, a goal difference of -6, and 8 goals scored. They are four points behind second-placed Australia and one point behind Saudi Arabia.
If Indonesia win all of their remaining matches against China and Bahrain, they will reach 15 points. However, they will need Saudi Arabia to avoid winning any of their matches, and Australia to lose at least one of theirs, with the other being a draw.
If Indonesia win one match and draw the other, their chances of advancing remain, but it will be slim due to an inferior secondary index compared to several other teams.
Indonesia's most realistic goal is to finish in third or fourth place, positions that would qualify them for the fourth round of the qualifiers. Currently, they are three points ahead of both Bahrain and China, who will face each other in the final round.
Indonesia will guarantee progression if they secure four more points. They could even clinch their spot in the next round with a victory over China tonight, provided Bahrain do not defeat Saudi Arabia.