Exceltur now expects all tourism-related activity in the world's second most-visited country to grow by 2.8% in 2025, a revision down from 3.3% growth it estimated in July, and down from a 5.5% expansion last year.
The group estimated that the tourism industry will contribute 13.1% to Spain's gross domestic product this year, below its initial estimate of 13.5%.
"Tourism is no longer the main dynamiser of the Spanish economy," Exceltur Vice President Oscar Perelli told a news conference, adding that the sector will no longer far exceed Spain's expected economic growth of 2.6%.
The number of international tourists may fall short of the 100 million projected by the World Travel and Tourism Council earlier this year.
Last year, Spain registered a record 94 million tourists, making it the second most visited country after France. By August this year, 66.8 million tourists had arrived, up 3.9% from the same period a year ago.
"I don't know if we will reach" the 100 million tourists, Spanish Tourism Minister Jordi Hereu said, adding though that he did not consider that as a cause for concern since tourist spending was still rising.
Sales across hotels, airlines, restaurants, and other tourism-related businesses rose 2.8% during the high summer season, a significant drop from the 6.3% growth recorded in the same time last year.
In the fourth quarter, Exceltur expects sales to rise 2%.
The slowing growth is linked to weaker spending by tourists from Germany, France, Turkey and the United States, Exceltur said.
An increase in tourists from Britain, which accounts for 26.5% of total visitors, as well as from China and Poland, helped offset the trend during the peak season, while the number of domestic tourists remained unchanged.