Chinese tourists are ditching Japan for South Korea this Lunar New Year

An estimated 230,000 to 250,000 mainland Chinese visitors are expected to arrive in South Korea during the nine-day holiday starting Feb. 15, according to travel analytics firm China Trading Desk. That would represent a jump of up to 52% from last year's Lunar New Year period, which was a day shorter, Bloomberg reported.

Japan, long a favorite among Chinese tourists because of its weak yen, is seeing the opposite trend. Arrivals from mainland China during the holiday are forecast to plunge by as much as 60% compared with 2025, China Trading Desk said, hollowing out one of Japan's most lucrative tourism segments.

The shift reflects rising diplomatic friction between Beijing and Tokyo, South Korea's aggressive easing of visa rules for Chinese tour groups, and growing safety concerns in other regional travel hubs. A favorable exchange rate between the Chinese renminbi and the South Korean won has further boosted South Korea's appeal, alongside the global popularity of Korean pop culture.

Seoul, Busan and Jeju Island are emerging as top destinations. Analysts say South Korea has become a natural substitute as Chinese travelers rethink Japan and, increasingly, Thailand.

"The weak won makes Seoul, Busan, and Jeju feel like good value for money on shopping and dining," said Subramania Bhatt, chief executive officer of China Trading Desk, The Straits Times reported. The combination of K-culture and the rerouting of cruise and tour itineraries from Japan to South Korea for the Spring Festival had created a clear substitution effect, he added.

At the same time, many Chinese travelers have scrapped trips to Thailand following the abduction of a Chinese actor who was later rescued from a scam center in neighboring Myanmar, as well as heightened concerns stemming from regional instability.

South Korea moved quickly to fill the gap, extending a visa-free entry policy for Chinese tour groups through June. The surge marks a dramatic turnaround from 2017, when a diplomatic dispute over the deployment of a U.S. missile defense system triggered a steep drop in Chinese visitors.

Signs of warming ties have also emerged. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung visited Beijing earlier this month for his second meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in just over two months, the first visit to China by a South Korean leader since 2019.

Airlines are racing to adjust capacity. Flights between mainland China and South Korea have jumped nearly 25% from a year earlier to more than 1,330 for the holiday period, according to Cirium aviation data. By contrast, scheduled flights from China to Japan have fallen 48% to just over 800, prompting major Chinese airlines to extend waived cancellation fees for Japan flights through March.

The influx is already rippling through South Korea's economy. Mainland visitor spending is expected to exceed $330 million during the holiday week alone, surpassing the $250 million to $300 million forecast for Japan, China Trading Desk estimates. More than seven million mainland tourists are projected to visit South Korea in 2026, up 15% from 2025, according to Yanolja Research.

Businesses catering to medical and beauty tourism are also feeling the surge. Tony Medina, who runs a Seoul-based consultancy connecting foreign visitors with skincare and cosmetic surgery clinics, said he has received several hundred inquiries from mainland Chinese clients in recent weeks, compared with only a handful last year.

"Twenty years in Korea, and I haven’t seen a surge like this," Medina said, noting that his firm does not market its services in China or in Mandarin, as cited by The Straits Times.

Not all South Koreans welcome the influx. Local media and social platforms have linked rising crime to the surge in mainland visitors, though the government has dismissed the claims as unsubstantiated. A petition calling for Parliament to scrap the visa-free policy has gathered about 60,000 signatures.

In Japan, the outlook remains weak. Visitor traffic from China, its biggest source of tourism spending, is expected to stay soft through the first quarter, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Leading travel agency JTB forecasts Japan will see its first decline in foreign tourist arrivals since the pandemic in 2026, with numbers falling 2.8% to 41.4 million.