4.44 pct is Vietnam's chance to qualify for World Cup

By Xuan Binh   June 16, 2021 | 03:46 am PT
4.44 pct is Vietnam's chance to qualify for World Cup
Vietnam players at the World Cup qualifying game with the UAE on June 15, 2021. Photo by VnExpress/Lam Thoa.
Football statistics site We Global revealed Vietnam only have a 4.44 percent chance of making it through the final round of World Cup qualifiers.

The site ran a risk analysis using Monte Carlo, a computational algorithm that relies on repeated random sampling to obtain numerical results of the third qualifying round of the 2022 World Cup Asian qualifiers.

There are 2,500 possibilities, of which 111 saw Vietnam qualify for World Cup, which translates to 4.44 percent.

Vietnam’s chance of advance is still higher than China (3.68 percent) and Lebanon (1.88 percent). Teams with the highest chance of qualifying are Japan (83.92 percent), Iran (82 percent) and South Korea (79.92 percent).

We Global put out statistics based on its own evaluation of teams, not based on FIFA rankings. Therefore, although Vietnam are below China in FIFA rankings, the computer still calculated the Golden Dragons have a higher probability of qualifying for World Cup. We Global said it would issue a more accurate calculation after the draw for the third qualifying round on June 24.

The 12 teams entering the final round will be divided into two groups to play home-and-away round-robin matches. The top two teams of each group will qualify for 2022 FIFA World Cup, and the two third-placed teams will play for a place in the intercontinental playoffs.

This is Vietnam’s very first time in the third qualifying round of World Cup, which will take place between September 2, 2021, and March 29, 2022.

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