Vietnam's population may decline by 2059, experts warn

At a Thursday conference on addressing low birth rates, scientists expressed concern over Vietnam's "alarmingly low" fertility rate, which may soon dip below the replacement level. The country's total fertility rate last year stood at 1.96 children per woman, the lowest on record, and is projected to continue declining. The replacement level, considered ideal for maintaining population stability, is 2.1 children per woman.

Pham Vu Hoang, deputy head of the Vietnam Population Authority, noted that Vietnam's population reached approximately 100.3 million last year, with an average annual increase of one million people between 2013 and 2023. Vietnam is currently the third most populous country in Southeast Asia and ranks 15th globally.

"However, population growth is slowing and is expected to continue declining," Hoang said. He pointed out that the population growth rate has decreased from 1.7% in 1999 to 1.14% in 2019, and further down to 0.85% in 2023.

If Vietnam maintains a medium birth rate, population growth could plateau by 2069, according to the General Statistics Office. However, if the birth rate remains low, the population could begin to decline as early as 2059.

Experts warn that a low birth rate could lead to several challenges, including labor shortages, increased immigration and an aging population. They attributed the declining birth rate to factors such as higher education levels, improved living standards and the financial burdens associated with raising children. They stressed the need for sustainable development policies to encourage larger families.

Citing a survey of 1,200 women aged 18-35 in four low-birth-rate regions: Khanh Hoa, Ho Chi Minh City, Soc Trang and Ca Mau, Nguyen Duc Vinh, head of the Institute of Sociology, said that while 80% of respondents expressed a desire to have two children, obstacles such as high costs, unsuitable job conditions and a lack of childcare options hindered their plans.