South Korea's population could shrink by 85% in next 100 years

The Korean Peninsula Population Institute for Future used the widely accepted cohort component method - factoring in birth rates, death rates, and immigration patterns - to forecast the country's population over the next century.

In its worst-case scenario, the population could fall to 7.53 million by 2125, down sharply from the current 51.68 million. This would be fewer than the current population of Seoul, which stands at over 9.3 million, according to the Korea Times.

Even under the most optimistic projection, the population would decline to 15.73 million, or less than one-third of its current level. The median forecast places the 2125 population at 11.15 million.

The report released last week also highlights the rapid pace of decline. Under the median scenario, South Korea's population would shrink by 30% by 2075, followed by an additional drop of over 50% over the next 50 years.

This sharp decline is not only due to falling birth rates but also a compounding generational effect: as each generation gets smaller, the number of potential parents also decreases, accelerating the population drop, Korea Herald cited the study as saying.

South Korea's demographic structure, once resembling a "stingray" with a broad base of younger people, is expected to take on a "cobra" shape by 2125, with declining numbers across all age groups and a disproportionately aging population.

One of the most alarming projections suggests that in 75 years, for every 100 people of working age (15 to 64), there could be 140 seniors aged 65 or older.

The report also includes a social sentiment analysis based on around 60,000 posts from users aged 20 to 40 on the workplace app Blind, focusing on attitudes toward marriage and childbirth. It found that younger generations now prioritize "money" and "housing" over "love" when discussing marriage, with financial burdens consistently cited as the main concern regarding having children.

To address the crisis, the institute proposed several urgent policy measures: expanding support for childbirth and parenting, fostering a more practical work-life balance culture, raising the retirement age, promoting continued employment, and reforming immigration policy.

Above all, the institute stressed the need to restructure the economy based on productivity, moving away from a growth model dependent on population expansion.

As of 2024, South Korea's total fertility rate rose slightly to 0.75, the first increase in a decade, but remains far below the replacement level of 2.1, according to official data. The average maternal age at childbirth also reached 33.7 years, among the highest in the world.