Ho Chi Minh City's birth rate edges up for first time in years

Women of childbearing age now give birth to 1.51 children on average, still well below the replacement rate of around 2 to 2.1 children per woman, according to a report announced on Dec. 27 at the National Population Month event.

But it is a positive shift for a city that has recorded the lowest fertility rate in the country for years. The rate was 1.45 last year.

Officials said 2025 is the first year the city has reversed its downward trend, especially after July's administrative merger with Binh Duong and Ba Ria-Vung Tau provinces that formed a 14-million-resident megacity. At the time of merger, fertility was just 1.43.

Pham Chanh Trung, head of the city’s Population Department, called the uptick "a positive signal" but warned that it is not yet enough to address long-term low fertility. The sex ratio at birth remains stable at 106.5 boys for every 100 girls, indicating no gender imbalance.

Health officials say 2025 has been a strong year for population targets: prenatal screening coverage has reached over 82%, newborn screening above 85%, and average life expectancy is now 76.7 years, higher than Vietnam’s national average.

Yet challenges loom. Ho Chi Minh City is aging fast, and a shrinking young workforce could put pressure on economic growth, innovation, healthcare, pensions and social welfare systems as contributors decline and beneficiaries increase.

To encourage births, the city has rolled out incentives including a VND5-million (US$190) support package for women who give birth to two children before age 35, along with broader programs to improve maternal and child healthcare through 2030.