Typhoon Koto keeps changing direction over East Sea, pushing Vietnam into high alert

The storm's winds are expected to hold at 89-117 kph over the next two days, even as it gradually weakens.

Meteorologists said that at 4 p.m. on Thursday, Koto was about 230 km north-northwest of Song Tu Tay Island in the Spratly Archipelago with sustained winds of 133 kph and gusts reaching up to 183 kph. The typhoon is drifting west at 5–10 kph. By Friday afternoon, it is expected to shift into the western waters of the central basin, about 260 km northwest of Song Tu Tay, with winds easing to 103-117 kph.

The storm’s path will remain erratic. Forecasts show Koto sliding west-southwest at just 3–5 kph before curving back northwest on Nov. 29. By Nov. 30, the typhoon will be positioned in the northwestern sector of the basin, still maintaining strong winds but with gusts strengthening again.

Hoang Phuc Lam, deputy head of Vietnam’s National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, said the typhoon’s zig-zag path is being shaped by a weakening subtropical ridge. As this high-pressure system loses influence, it provides less steering, allowing Koto to drift northward as it moves farther away from the ridge’s core.

International agencies show similar forecasts with slight differences in their projections. Japan Meteorological Agency reports current winds of 144 kph and expects the storm to weaken to 90 kph by Dec. 1 as it approaches waters off Gia Lai Province in south central Vietnam. Hong Kong Observatory says Koto may peak at around 130 kph in the coming hours before weakening sharply as it curves north, dropping to 75 kph by Dec. 2.

Hazardous conditions are already spreading across the region. The central South China Sea, including the northern waters of Vietnam’s Spratly Archipelago, is experiencing winds 50-133 kph, gusting up to 183 kph, and waves 4–9 meters high. From early Friday, offshore areas from Gia Lai to Khanh Hoa provinces can expect waves up to 7 meters and winds at 39-74 kph, with stronger gusts.

Vietnamese authorities have moved into high-readiness mode. Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh issued an emergency directive late Wednesday calling for the "highest level of preparedness," demanding local governments monitor the typhoon continuously and take early action to protect lives.

Border guard units reported that 50,732 vessels with 281,689 crew members from Da Nang in central Vietnam to Ca Mau in the southern tip have been notified of Koto’s developments, with none currently in dangerous zones. Provinces from Da Nang to Dak Lak have also lowered reservoir water levels to create flood-control capacity, freeing more than 320 million cubic meters for downstream protection as of early Nov. 26.

Koto formed from a tropical depression east of the Philippines, intensified into a typhoon and entered the South China Sea on Nov. 25. It is the 15th storm in the basin this year, part of the busiest typhoon season in three decades. Across Vietnam, storms and floods in 2025 have killed 409 people, injured 727 and caused more than VND85 trillion in economic damage.