Super Typhoon Ragasa to enter East Sea Monday with 220 kph winds

According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, the storm was about 230 km from Luzon Island in the Philippines on Monday morning, with maximum winds of 221 kph, moving west-northwest at 20 kph.

By early Tuesday morning, Ragasa is expected to be in the northern East Sea (South China Sea) with sustained winds of 202–220 kph, maintaining its track and speed and possibly strengthening. By 1 a.m. Wednesday, the storm is forecast to be about 490 km east of China's Leizhou Peninsula with winds of 184–220 kph. A day later, it should be over waters east of the peninsula with winds easing to 150–183 kph, before turning west-southwest into the Gulf of Tonkin.

People watch as strong waves batter Basco, Batanes province, northern Philippines as Typhoon Ragasa affects the area on Monday, Sept. 22, 2025. Photo by AP

Japan's Meteorological Agency projects maximum winds around 198 kph Monday and Tuesday, before and after the system enters the East Sea. The Hong Kong Observatory forecasts winds could reach 230 kph.

Forecast tracks differ slightly. JMA expects landfall on the Leizhou Peninsula before the system moves into the Gulf of Tonkin, while Hong Kong's forecast has landfall along Guangdong's coast, then a shift toward Leizhou and into the Gulf.

Hoang Phuc Lam, deputy director of Vietnam's National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, outlined two scenarios on Sunday. If the typhoon veers toward Guangdong, it will likely weaken before entering the Gulf of Tonkin. If it holds a more westerly, lower track, weakening will be less pronounced, bringing stronger winds and higher waves to the Gulf. In that case, Vietnam's northern and central coast could experience very strong winds and heavy rain.

Lam added that a seasonal cold air mass is moving down to northern Vietnam. Its interaction with the typhoon in the coming days could make Ragasa's track and intensity more complex, increasing uncertainty beyond three days.

A predicted trajectory of Super Tyhoon Ragasa. Graphics by Vietnam National Disaster System

Ragasa formed from a tropical depression on the evening of Sept. 18 and intensified by eight levels on the Beaufort wind force scale in just four days to become a super typhoon.

Vietnam's National Civil Defense Committee is scheduled to meet on Monday afternoon with relevant agencies to discuss response measures.

In 2024, the Northwest Pacific recorded three super typhoons, defined as carrying maximum sustained winds of at least 201 kph: Yagi, Gaemi, and Krathon. Yagi made landfall in northern Vietnam, bringing destructive winds, landslides, flash floods, and severe flooding. It killed 318 people, left 26 missing, and caused nearly VND84 trillion (US$3.2 billion) in economic losses in Vietnam.

From October to December, meteorologists expect more storms and tropical depressions off Vietnam's coast than the multi-year average, typically more than four storms with nearly two making landfall.