Air pollution could cost Southeast Asia nearly $600B by 2050: study

The research, published this month in the journal Environment International, focuses on fine particulate matter (PM2.5)-attributable premature deaths. It forecasts an increase of 7.2% under a low-emissions scenario (SSP126) and a sharper 9.6% increase under a high-emissions scenario (SSP585) by 2050. This translates to an increase of about 82,345 deaths for SSP126 and 109,608 deaths for SSP585.

These scenarios, known as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), describe possible future trajectories for global society, economy, and population. SSP126 represents a climate-friendly path with low emissions, a transition to sustainability, and strong mitigation efforts. Conversely, SSP585 is a high-emissions, fossil-fuel–intensive path characterized by rapid economic growth, heavy reliance on fossil fuels, and limited climate action, potentially leading to significant global temperature rise by 2100.

The study, led by Steve Yim, head of the Center for Climate Change and Environmental Health at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University, estimates the total economic cost to the region from air pollution-related fatalities. The cost would be $447 billion if the low-emissions approach (SSP126) is followed, but it would rise to the peak estimate of $591 billion under the high-emissions approach (SSP585).

"These figures represent the total social value of lost lives, not direct health care costs. They capture a broader welfare loss, such as lost productivity, economic output, and the intangible cost of premature death," Yim told Fortune magazine.

Climate change itself exacerbates air pollution, as it affects the weather systems that control how pollution forms, spreads, and dissipates. For instance, reduced rainfall can limit the natural removal of pollutants, allowing them to accumulate in the air, the expert said.

Air pollution in Southeast Asia stems from various sources, including vehicle exhaust, forest fires, and coal power plants. A report published last September by the United Nation Sustainable Development Group indicated that over 90% of East and Southeast Asia's 2.5 billion people currently breathe air with unsafe levels of PM2.5 and ground-level ozone.

Exposure to air pollution is linked to a broad range of human diseases. According to the 2025 State of Global Air report, a collaboration between the Health Effects Institute (HEI) and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, these ailments include ischemic heart disease, stroke, lung cancer, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, a progressive lung disease that makes it difficult to breathe due to obstructed airflow.