UK universities set to gain as Trump policies deter foreign students

"While uncertainty is the only certainty of Trump's governing style, his return may be good news for the U.K. sector."

The report highlighted that during Trump's first term, international student enrollments in the U.S. declined annually, driven by a series of restrictive policies, according to Times Higher Education.

During his first term, Trump introduced multiple measures that negatively affected international students. In 2017, he imposed travel bans on nearly a dozen countries, including five predominantly Muslim nations, North Korea, and Venezuela. In 2020, these restrictions were expanded to limit immigrant visas from six additional countries with large Muslim populations.

Trump also attempted to tighten visa regulations, proposing rules to limit student visas for certain nationalities and prevent international students from staying in the U.S. if enrolled in online courses during the pandemic.

Between 2017 and 2021, the U.S. saw a decline in international student enrollments. Data from the Institute of International Education (IIE)’s Open Doors reports show that total international student numbers dropped from 1,078,822 in the 2016/17 academic year to 1,075,496 in 2019/20. New enrollments saw a sharper decline, from 300,743 in 2015/16 to 267,712 in 2019/20.

The sector lost 50,000 international students before the Covid-19 pandemic, with the most significant declines coming from the Middle East and North Africa, Mexico, and Central America.

Several U.S. universities, including the University of Massachusetts Amherst, MIT, and Yale, urged international students last November to return before Trump's inauguration due to concerns over potential travel restrictions and visa policy changes.

The British Council report also noted that Trump's administration has been skeptical about H-1B work visas, which could further deter prospective international students.

According to The PIE News, within hours of Trump's second presidential term, he issued a "tsunami" of executive orders on immigration, which could have serious consequences for international students and their families in the U.S.

The report stated that perhaps the most significant order for international students so far was Trump's directive to implement extreme vetting of foreign nationals applying for U.S. visas, "to the maximum degree possible".

"This could permit the government to perform enhanced screening of individuals in particular countries or even warrant a partial or full suspension admission of nationals from certain countries," said NAFSA deputy executive director of public policy, Jill Allen Murray, in an interview with The PIE.

UK as a preferred alternative

The Independent cited the British Council's report as saying that U.S. education "may lose some of its lustre for international students", which could lead to a rise in overseas enrollments in the U.K.

Stricter immigration attitudes in Canada and Australia could also discourage prospective students, creating a "ready recruitment pool" for U.K. universities, the report said.

Maddalaine Ansell, the British Council's director of education, emphasized the need for the U.K. to maintain its leading role in global higher education.

"While our English-speaking competitors might be experiencing challenges, we must not grow complacent," she told The Guardian.

"There is work to be done to boost recruitment from a larger number of smaller markets, in making greater investments in TNE (transnational education), and in continuing to ensure that the U.K. recruits highly qualified international students from across the globe," Ansell added.

Following a difficult 2024, the report forecasts a more optimistic outlook for the U.K.’s international education market this year.

The British Council also noted that while India may have peaked as a source of outbound students, a weakening Chinese economy could drive more interest in overseas postgraduate studies.

East Asian markets are expected to continue growing, with Malaysia predicted to be a major beneficiary.

Government data shows that international students made up around 25% of the U.K. student population in 2023, totaling about 750,000 learners.

However, according to CNA, study visa numbers for the 2024–2025 academic year have dropped by over 30%, with postgraduate enrollments falling by 40%.

Statistics from the Home Office in January 2024 also indicate a 14% decrease in international visa applications compared to the previous year, according to The PIE News.

Critics blame the downturn on the U.K. government's stricter immigration policies and visa restrictions introduced in January 2024.