Bangkok condo supply slides to 16-year low

New launches plunged 94% year-on-year to 373 units, marking the lowest level since 2009 when the market was recovering from the subprime crisis, and surpassing the downturn seen during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, according to a report by property service firm Colliers Thailand as reported by The Nation.

Thailand, Bangkok, Khlong San district, skyscrapers along the Chao Phraya river. Photo by Hemis via AFP

It said that these figures have prompted property developers and analysts to urgently reassess their approaches.

"This is not merely a seasonal slowdown but a clear signal reflecting buyer hesitation and cautious decision-making from developers," said Pattarachai Thaweewong, director of research at Colliers International Thailand.

He highlighted that, despite a slight recovery between 2022 and 2023, the market has not regained its pre-crisis vigor.

The severity of the 2025 downturn is particularly notable when compared to the typical second quarter average of 8,000 to 12,000 new condo launches over the past ten years.

The supply crisis continued from the first quarter, when newly launched condo supply in Bangkok tallied 6,306 units. Marking a 72% increase from the same period last year, but a 35% drop from the fourth quarter of 2024, according to Bangkok Post.

Thaweewong attributed the plunge to several factors, including high interest rates significantly limiting the purchasing power of genuine buyers.

Increasing development costs, fueled by rising prices for construction materials and land, are compressing developer profit margins, he said.

Ongoing economic uncertainty and the absence of clear government policy direction are further undermining confidence, he added.

As a result, many developers have chosen to "delay" new project launches, focusing instead on clearing existing inventory and strengthening cash flow, he said.

As Bangkok market cools, property developers are shifting their focus to Thailand’s southern island Phuket, seeking to capitalize on demand from tourists and retirees from China and the U.S.

Around 10,000 new flats will enter Phuket’s market this year, with new project launches occurring weekly, according to Colliers, as reported by South China Morning Post.