Global Christmas break can boost Vietnam stock market

With foreign investors having been net sellers for the majority of sessions in December, the Christmas break could ease selling pressure and help the VN-Index reach 958-961 points in the first few sessions this week, according to a report from Bao Viet Securities (BVSC).

Vietnam’s benchmark Index closed at 956.41 points on Friday, having risen 0.44 percent with most blue chips stocks in the green, despite a foreign net sell of VND340 billion ($14.66 million).

If the stock market can rise above 960 points, a psychological threshold, the market could enter a recovery phase, potentially rising up to 980-985 points in the near future, BVSC said.

Although the VN-Index had plunged from 1015.59 points to 956.41 points in the last two months, downward momentum had slowed down in the past two weeks. It lost only 10 points in the last two weeks, and neared the 950 support level many times but never fell further.

The market is also beginning to show positive signals at the end of the year, considered a peak time when exchange-traded funds (ETFs) restructure their portfolios and futures contract mature, according to analysts.

For instance, liquidity on Friday session reached VND3.39 trillion ($146.13 million), the highest level in the last two weeks, most recent sessions recording net buys from domestic investors, with the VN-Index hovering above opening for the duration of these sessions.

However, liquidity remains relatively low to averages of previous months, showing that investors are still cautious and it will be difficult for the market to make a breakthrough in the last sessions of the year, according to BVSC.

After this week, Vietnam’s stock market will have two last sessions for 2019. Many analysts have released reports focusing on long-term drivers for the market, with positive stimulus expected from amendments to Public Investment Law due next year, the U.S.-China reaching a trade agreement, and Vietnam’s steadily growing macroeconomic indicators.

Vietnam’s economy is estimated to expand by 6.8 percent this year, with continued trade surplus and declining public debt, according to the latest report by the World Bank

Asian Development Bank this month revised its GDP growth forecast for Vietnam from 6.8 to 6.9 percent in 2019.