Singapore lender UOB hikes Vietnam economic growth forecast to 7.7%

Despite U.S. tariff threats, Vietnam managed to achieve 8.23% growth rate during the quarter, boosted by strong exports and production, the bank said in a note.

Exports surged by 16% year-on-year in the first nine months and manufacturing by 10.8%.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index expanded for a third month in September, reversing three months of contraction earlier.

This suggests a stabilized outlook ahead and is further reaffirmed by the quickened pace of foreign direct investment, which grew by 8.5% to $18.8 billion. Full-year numbers may match the record $25.4 billion achieved in 2024.

On the tariff front, U.S. President Donald Trump had declared in early July a 20% tariff on Vietnam’s exports to the U.S., much lower than the 46% threatened initially.

UOB warned however that Vietnam remains vulnerable to trade friction due to the open nature of its economy.

Exports of goods and services account for 83% of Vietnam’s GDP, the second highest among ASEAN members behind only Singapore’s 182%.

While Vietnam’s trade activities appeared to be robust despite the U.S. tariffs, one potential outcome is that exports orders could start to fade once the frontloading of orders ease and higher prices affect U.S. consumer demand especially into 2026.

The foreign exchange market also requires action, as the Vietnamese dong was the second worst-performing Asian currency in the first nine months of 2025, declining by 3.55% against the U.S. dollar and beaten only by the Indian rupee’s 3.58% fall.

Several others have also raised their growth forecasts for Vietnam this year. British lender HSBC pegs the figure at 7.9%, while the Asian Development Bank expects it to be 6.7%.

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh said last month that with the current growth momentum Vietnam could achieve its GDP growth target of over 8% this year if there are no major disruptions.